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Major Recession in 2013 - Morgan Stanley
#1
Quote: The global economy is likely to be stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish growth in 2013, Morgan Stanley has warned, but if policymakers fail to act, it could get a lot worse.

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The bank’s economics team forecasts a full-blown recession next year, under a pessimistic scenario, with global gross domestic product (GDP) likely to plunge 2 percent.

“More than ever, the economic outlook hinges upon the actions taken or not taken by governments and central banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Under the bank’s more gloomy scenario, the U.S. would go over the “fiscal cliff” leading to a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first three quarters of 2013. In Europe, the bank’s pessimistic scenario assumes a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates and a delay of its bond-buying program.

It seems as though more economists who's income is dependent on the markets are NOT at all hopeful for the near future. Here is Morgan Stanley's take on the current situation. Not very reassuring.
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USAF (1976 -1986) NRA, GOA Anim_sniper2
"The problems we face today are there because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living." Dan Cofall
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#2
I expect things will get worse, and I expect to be directly affected sooner rather than later, as others I depend on have already been directly affected.
Vampire pig man since September 2012
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#3
Camper;47271 Wrote:I expect things will get worse, and I expect to be directly affected sooner rather than later, as others I depend on have already been directly affected.

As usual your words echo my thoughts exactly.

Even if it doesn't happen, I urge people to start planning. Figure out how you are going to live if your life is turned upside down.
The law? The law is a human institution...
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#4
csmith;47299 Wrote:
Camper;47271 Wrote:I expect things will get worse, and I expect to be directly affected sooner rather than later, as others I depend on have already been directly affected.

As usual your words echo my thoughts exactly.

Even if it doesn't happen, I urge people to start planning. Figure out how you are going to live if your life is turned upside down.

I need a manual water pump. Right now, my well uses an electric pump, Id like a manual backup.
[Image: incubi+INK.jpg]. ABC,CBS,NBC,CNN no diff
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#5
Quote: “More than ever, the economic outlook hinges upon the actions taken or not taken by governments and central banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.
That's exactly our problem. Our economy is too dependent on government decisions and policy. And the central banks need to GTFO
When the zombie apocalypse comes, I'll try my best to contain my excitement.
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#6
I just recently (post election) liquidated most of my exposure to the stock market. I am a buy and hold type and I bought some of these funds in 2000 pre Bush and did very well even holding through 9/11 and the great recession of 2008-9.
The way I see it, dividend paying stocks will take a hit, higher taxes on capital gains will stunt investment. People will be taking cap gains THIS year to avoid higher taxes next year which will mean a major sell off in the next few weeks.

To further cloud the issue, socialists are content that they have won the argument on taxing the rich and they have moved on to proposing a new wealth tax to go after not only income but bank accounts. I may need to slowly cash out and keep a safe full of money that cannot be attacked by government auditors.
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#7
The Fundamental Change proceeding AS PLANNED.
"In 4 more OMao years you won't like how America looks....I guarantee it."
“When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty.” -- Thomas Jefferson
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#8
W00t Socialism..... Dodgy
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LifeInPa, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
Sanity, yours if you can keep it. Confused
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#9
Well, given Morgan Stanley's history on predicting the future..................Shrug

But....based on the countries changing demographics alone (Baby Boomers retiring) anybody with real money in the market should have reallocated by now. If not, do it soon. The Go Go days of the 90's are gone but I still see great opportunities in the market, mainly Domestic Energy and Health Care.

2% drop in GDP is big but not the end of the world if one is correctly prepared. Europe's demise will, I think, actually be good for us as a safe haven. Interesting times ahead, no doubt.
Dave, proudly annoying members of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
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#10
Dave;47646 Wrote:Well, given Morgan Stanley's history on predicting the future..................Shrug

But....based on the countries changing demographics alone (Baby Boomers retiring) anybody with real money in the market should have reallocated by now. If not, do it soon. The Go Go days of the 90's are gone but I still see great opportunities in the market, mainly Domestic Energy and Health Care.

2% drop in GDP is big but not the end of the world if one is correctly prepared. Europe's demise will, I think, actually be good for us as a safe haven. Interesting times ahead, no doubt.

With Obamacare coming on line full steam in 2014 I wouldn't touch anything in healthcare for at least two years. Many of the companies are still not sure of what they will have to do and when even though they've got the public timeline.
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USAF (1976 -1986) NRA, GOA Anim_sniper2
"The problems we face today are there because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living." Dan Cofall
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