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Most Likely Scenarios
#1
I think everyone that carries a firearm has run many different "What if's" through their head. We've seen the threads repeatedly through the years. I think as being prepared, we also need to consider the most likely scenarios that we're probably going to encounter.

Here's an off the top of my head list roughly sorted by probability that anyone may have to deal with.

1. Foul weather causing extended power outage/loss of services
2. Natural disasters like earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis. Obviously some of those are less likely depending upon where you live.
3. Civil unrest or rioting.
4. Terrorist attack - Nuclear, Biological, Chemical (NBC) or Conventional, meaning random shootings or bombings.
5. Pandemic outbreak of disease.
6. Out of this world events, solar flares, asteroid strike or alien invasion.
7. Armageddon

Obviously each one of them you'd need to be prepared differently. Feel free to discuss any points.
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#2
Items 1&2 are by far the most likely event(s) to occur.
And the easiest to prepare for, yet most everyone can't be bothered to have even a weeks worth of food and water laying around.

What once was common sense and the norm in this country is now not even worthy of consideration to most. Even the government recommends it...what does that tell you.
Welcome to ObamaNation part deuxUtg
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#3
The first 3 are scenarios that I personally believe are most likely to occur.

GB
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Certified Range Safety Officer. Proud member of the NRA, GOA and GSSF. PA2A since Sep 2012.
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#4
Yesterday in Pittsburgh, you had a convicted felon, wander to a downtown office building, ride the elevator to the 16th floor, and randomly take a guy hostage with a butcher knife and a screwdriver for 6 hours! [Image: ohmy.gif][Image: ohmy.gif][Image: ohmy.gif]

That's about as RANDOM as it gets!!! Therefore, carry ALWAYS!!!
The War Wagon, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012. Anim_banana

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#5
It still boggles my mind that our water and electrical supplies were not randomly "attacked".

Two things that would really start a ruckus within the populous.


That and disrupting government checks.
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#6
Emptymag;10949 Wrote:It still boggles my mind that our water and electrical supplies were not randomly "attacked".

Two things that would really start a ruckus within the populous.


That and disrupting government checks.

Considering the sorry state of security of most SCADA systems as well as physical security around many facilities, it is amazing.
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#7
I'm most worried about a Amish invasion from the western part of the state. Wink
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LifeInPa, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
Sanity, yours if you can keep it. Confused
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#8
Emptymag;10949 Wrote:It still boggles my mind that our water and electrical supplies were not randomly "attacked".

Two things that would really start a ruckus within the populous.


That and disrupting government checks.

I see two possibities:

1. The gov way over played the Islamic terror threat.
2. Would be terrorists don't want to bring it too close to home because it would strengthen our resolve...cause we own guns in shit.
Welcome to ObamaNation part deuxUtg
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#9
I rank the following in terms of probability:

1) Natural disaster which for my location is probably a really bad storm. A few days and back to normal. Minimal long-term risk since this is geographically localized.

2) The 'big one' in my mind is your #5, a pandemic from a super-bug. With the conditions some humans and animals co-habitate, bulk processing of livestock, mass food production, I'm really almost surprised something hasn't happened yet. And the ability to get on a plane and be on the other side of the world in less than a day is all at once amazing and terrifying.
Palerider, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
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#10
I am of the mind that Mother Nature will be the cause of any shtf in my lifetime. This is what I am preparing for. Luckly I like guns so that helps with other senarios.

I don't rule out other possible crap storms and I do have plans for some of them also, just that I think it will be something natural that causes any real breakdown.
You have a right to protect yourself and a duty to protect your family.
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