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Poll: The presidential race is tight in Pennsylvania
#21
longcall911;12480 Wrote:
ExcelToExcel;12377 Wrote:Yes 800 out of 8755424 is great.

I’ll take that as a “Sorry, I guess I was wrong to try to dismiss the poll on the basis of sample size.”

ExcelToExcel;12377 Wrote:Fantastic 95% confidence level with an interval of 3.6 fantastic. So why do you dispute those with a interval of 2.6? Hum...

There you go using the typical progressive tactic of distorting what was said. Excel, you brought up the other poll, offering it evidence. I neither disputed its results, nor agreed with them. I simply said that you attempted to define "reality", but that "reality" is based on only the polls that you agree with. Just to be clear, let me repeat. My statement was neither for nor against the results of the poll. Rather, it was to point out that you pick polls that you agree with, and then try to pass them off as “reality”.

ExcelToExcel;12377 Wrote:$4 million is breakfast for the companies I've worked for and far below the one I work for now. Not that it matters because I'm.sure you worked for a big company at one time and I'm not questioning your abilities.

I see, so only big companies are valid now. And since you work for a big company, I guess that makes your opinion correct and everyone else’s incorrect.

My company was a small business of 7 people. I mentioned the $4 million in sales as evidence that it was not some fly-by-night. The reason for bringing it up at all was to counter your attempt to discredit my opinion and to label me as “someone who knows nothing about polling”. Well, since you are the one who mistakenly invalidated results based solely on an 800 person sample which is clearly a valid size, maybe you shouldn't be the one going around trying to discredit others.
LongCall hes a pool technician dont bother arguing HE KNOWS EVERYTHING!
das, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
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#22
They figure if your fed crap long enough you will eventually believe it...
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#23
Out of curiosity, where do any of these polls show the CI?
Shadowline, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
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#24
Shadowline;12602 Wrote:Out of curiosity, where do any of these polls show the CI?



Gadsden_clr What does this thread have to do with Cigars International? Tease Or maybe Cigna Corp.?
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#25
Gadsden_clr Back on topic. Anyone polling with the 2008 electorate participation dynamic is wasting their money.
NRA life member/ILA/PVA/Whittington Center sponsor
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#26
Shadowline;12402 Wrote:If people really know so much about polls and statistical analysis they wouldn't be harping on the precision factors for each. Unless you've seen the questions that were asked, and the medium in which they were asked, this argument can go nowhere.

I think the question is pretty simple.. if you want to know you can usually find out.

I specifically said I wasn't questioning your abilities nor do I think the size of he company is important. Wtf... you brought it into the discussion not I.

Furthermore the poll you picked said Obama still wins.. Wtf... is it not valid or is it?

Reality is that all polls say Obama wins so far. And most are over the 8 point mark with the most recent at 12 points.. I'm not picking any poll I agree with they all are what I'm basing my opinion off of and all of then ive seen have Obama winning... that's reality.

longcall911;12480 Wrote:
ExcelToExcel;12377 Wrote:Yes 800 out of 8755424 is great.

I’ll take that as a “Sorry, I guess I was wrong to try to dismiss the poll on the basis of sample size.”

ExcelToExcel;12377 Wrote:Fantastic 95% confidence level with an interval of 3.6 fantastic. So why do you dispute those with a interval of 2.6? Hum...

There you go using the typical progressive tactic of distorting what was said. Excel, you brought up the other poll, offering it evidence. I neither disputed its results, nor agreed with them. I simply said that you attempted to define "reality", but that "reality" is based on only the polls that you agree with. Just to be clear, let me repeat. My statement was neither for nor against the results of the poll. Rather, it was to point out that you pick polls that you agree with, and then try to pass them off as “reality”.

ExcelToExcel;12377 Wrote:$4 million is breakfast for the companies I've worked for and far below the one I work for now. Not that it matters because I'm.sure you worked for a big company at one time and I'm not questioning your abilities.

I see, so only big companies are valid now. And since you work for a big company, I guess that makes your opinion correct and everyone else’s incorrect.

My company was a small business of 7 people. I mentioned the $4 million in sales as evidence that it was not some fly-by-night. The reason for bringing it up at all was to counter your attempt to discredit my opinion and to label me as “someone who knows nothing about polling”. Well, since you are the one who mistakenly invalidated results based solely on an 800 person sample which is clearly a valid size, maybe you shouldn't be the one going around trying to discredit others.
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#27
I calculated it myself. You can do it also.

Shadowline;12602 Wrote:Out of curiosity, where do any of these polls show the CI?
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#28
Denial of every Single poll out there isn't going to change facts. Just keep clicking your ruby red slippers or you can realize he ain't got a chance in pa. Your anger and frustration need not be directed at me, go complain to romney or the gop and leave me the Fuck out of it.


das;12495 Wrote:
longcall911;12480 Wrote:I’ll take that as a “Sorry, I guess I was wrong to try to dismiss the poll on the basis of sample size.”


There you go using the typical progressive tactic of distorting what was said. Excel, you brought up the other poll, offering it evidence. I neither disputed its results, nor agreed with them. I simply said that you attempted to define "reality", but that "reality" is based on only the polls that you agree with. Just to be clear, let me repeat. My statement was neither for nor against the results of the poll. Rather, it was to point out that you pick polls that you agree with, and then try to pass them off as “reality”.


I see, so only big companies are valid now. And since you work for a big company, I guess that makes your opinion correct and everyone else’s incorrect.

My company was a small business of 7 people. I mentioned the $4 million in sales as evidence that it was not some fly-by-night. The reason for bringing it up at all was to counter your attempt to discredit my opinion and to label me as “someone who knows nothing about polling”. Well, since you are the one who mistakenly invalidated results based solely on an 800 person sample which is clearly a valid size, maybe you shouldn't be the one going around trying to discredit others.
LongCall hes a pool technician dont bother arguing HE KNOWS EVERYTHING!
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#29
Yosemitesam;12615 Wrote:Gadsden_clr Back on topic. Anyone polling with the 2008 electorate participation dynamic is wasting their money.

+1 for that - it' a big mistake to assume that participation rates will be similar to 2008. People were excited in 2008; Obama was filling stadiums. Now, he has to work hard to fill a cafeteria. Dick Morris has a good explanation of why almost all of the polls are flawed: http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-...mney-vote/

Calculating a confidence interval based on sample size is easy; that's just statistics. But trying to predict the final vote by making corrections to your data to account for the demographics of your respondents and their likely participation in the election, that's the tough part.
scruff, proud to be a member of pa2a.org since Sep 2012.
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#30
True but typically polls are geared towards likely voters. Those negates your concerns. Furthermore, my conversations indicate republicans are far less likely to vote this time around. Maybe your mileage varies but I haven't seen pa go red for a long time and he polls indicate it won't go red.wishful thinking doesn't win elections.
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