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Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
Interesting analysis even when you consider the source.


It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.

For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting.

One potentially dispositive question is what mix of Republicans and Democrats will show up this election. On Friday last week, Gallup hinted at the partisan makeup of the 2012 electorate with a small chart buried at the end of its daily tracking report. Based on all its October polling, Gallup suggested that this year's turnout might be 36% Republican to 35% Democratic, compared with 39% Democratic and 29% Republican in 2008, and 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004. If accurate, this would be real trouble for Mr. Obama, since Mr. Romney has consistently led among independents in most October surveys.

Gallup delivered some additional bad news to Mr. Obama on early voting. Through Sunday, 15% of those surveyed said they had already cast a ballot either in person or absentee. They broke for Mr. Romney, 52% to 46%. The 63% who said they planned to vote on Election Day similarly supported Mr. Romney, 51% to 45%.

Furthermore, in battleground states, the edge in early and absentee vote turnout that propelled Democrats to victory in 2008 has clearly been eroded, cut in half according to a Republican National Committee summary.

Continued at link:
Article Link: "Rove - Sifting the Numbers"
Shadowline, proud to be a member of since Sep 2012.
I don't see that much sifting needs to even be done:

New pew research poll from yesterday:

Romney +7 among early voters, with 19% of the electorate having already voted.


Romney +7 among early voters in Ohio and in swing states


Obama MINUS -22 points vs 2008 early voting.


Seriously....this is absolutely shaping up to be a blowout.
The republican strategy since the first debate when Romney pulled ahead is to say, "We are winning, but it's still very, very close." That way they can get the inevitable, "Might as well vote for the winner," crowd as well as make sure the R voters feel the pressure to get out in record numbers.

Remember the massive voter influx and turnout for the 2010 mid-term, fueled by the TEA party groundswell? Have those NEW voters suddenly turned Commie? Nope. The question is whether or not hard TEA partiers will vote for a moderate Romney. I believe that most feel the Obama presidency is an unmitigated disaster and will vote for a pickle on a stick if the pickle looks like it's got a chance to oust Obama. Sure, Paulites and other Libertarians will still vote 3rd party out of spite. But even so, we are talking record turnout for NEW NOT OBAMA and a huge swing from I HATE BUSH SO I VOTED FOR THIS NEW GUY to DEAR LORD THIS OBAMA IS TERRIBLE.

This election is Romney's by 7-10 points. Another relevant point is whether PA will lose it's "swing" status by voting BLUE again. I think not, but in Philly there are a lot of dumbasses, as well as the .gov functionaries in HBurg who vote solid blue.
~All Knowledge is Worth Having~
The Philly vote may be significantly disrupted because of the storm.

We'll see...

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